El avocado price 2025 was a challenging year for many farmers, marked by a significant drop in the price paid per kilo in the producing regions. The combination of favorable weather conditions and a substantial increase in the harvest has driven prices down at the source, to levels that many producers consider insufficient to cover costs.
Even so, farmers are looking to the new year with a degree of cautious hope. After a season with oversupply of fruit and lower incomeExpectations are that the market will gradually rebalance and recover some of the lost value, allowing farms to maintain profitability and preventing avocado farming from becoming a loss-making activity.
Causes of the recent drop in avocado prices
In 2025, avocado producers from municipalities such as Ocuituco, in the state of Morelos (Mexico), explained that the price drop had a very clear origin: a particularly abundant campaign Thanks to favorable weather. In other words, the weather cooperated, the trees bore fruit well, and the harvest was much larger than usual.
That abundance of fruit resulted in a overproduction relative to effective demandThis, in practice, means more avocados than the market could absorb at high prices. When this imbalance occurs, buyers have more room to negotiate downwards, and farmgate prices tend to plummet, as has happened in this case.
The farmers themselves explain that, for much of the year, the A kilogram of avocados was paid between 25 and 30 pesos.a figure that, they point out, makes it quite difficult to cover expenses such as irrigation and fertilizersLabor, transportation, and plantation maintenance. In small or medium-sized producing areas, where large volumes and stable contracts are not always available, this decline is even more noticeable.
The situation has highlighted how vulnerable the avocado price during production peaksIn large harvest seasons, if it is not accompanied by good commercial planning, export agreements or storage and processing systems, the surplus of fruit ends up pushing prices to very low levels for the farmer.
Impact on producers and the local economy
The sector most affected is made up, above all, of producers located in high and rural areas, like the mountainous region of Morelos, where avocados have become a staple crop. There, many families depend heavily on their harvest each season to support their households.
When the The price at the farm gate remains too low.The profit margin for the farmer is reduced to a minimum. This can lead to the postponement of necessary investments on the farm, such as pruning, tree replacement, or improvement of irrigation systemswhich in the medium term can affect both the yield and the quality of the fruit.
Furthermore, a campaign with low prices usually translates into less temporary employment in harvesting and handling tasksThis is because many producers choose to cut costs wherever they can. This also has repercussions for the economy of nearby towns, where the income of day laborers and small landowners is felt in shops and services.
In areas where avocados compete with other crops (citrus fruits, stone fruits, or vegetables, for example), a season with lower than expected revenue This may lead some farmers to reconsider the area dedicated to the fruit. However, changing crops is neither a simple nor an immediate decision, and often involves additional investments and new risks.
Prospects for avocado price recovery
Despite the scenario experienced in 2025, producers maintain some confidence that, throughout this year, The price of avocados will experience a gradual recovery.A sharp rebound is not expected, but a gradual improvement is anticipated as supply adjusts and the market stabilizes.
This potential improvement would be supported by several factors: firstly, it is likely that the same conditions of overproduction not be repeated This could change if the weather shifts slightly or if some farmers reduce their fruit load through pruning or thinning. Secondly, avocado consumption remains high in many markets, both fresh and for industrial use (sauces, prepared foods, guacamole, processed products), maintaining a healthy level of demand.
Furthermore, in both Latin America and Europe, the Hass avocado has been consolidated as a common product in the shopping basketAlthough the price for the end consumer may fluctuate depending on the season, the presence of the fruit in supermarkets and fruit shops is no longer occasional, but constant, which helps to absorb part of the available production.
For the price recovery to truly reach the farmer, it will be key that intermediary chains adjust their margins and that marketing channels be improved. In producing regions, there is talk of strengthening cooperatives, joint sales agreements, or even direct export projects to reduce dependence on a few buyers.
What could happen in Spain and Europe with the price of avocados?
The situation experienced by Latin American producers serves as a reference for a better understanding what could happen in markets like Spain or the rest of Europewhere avocado consumption has been steadily increasing in recent years. Although the specific data varies by country, the basic dynamic is similar: when there is a large international supply, prices tend to compress.
In Spain, areas such as Malaga, Granada or part of the Valencian Community They have invested heavily in avocado cultivation, both to supply the domestic market and for export to other European countries. If large volumes of local production coincide with peak imports, it could put downward pressure on prices, especially during peak harvest times.
That's why many experts recommend that Spanish farmers pay attention to what is happening in major avocado-exporting countries. When there is overproduction at the sourcePart of that surplus ends up in Europe, affecting the prices paid in wholesale markets and, by extension, what the European producer ultimately receives.
At the same time, European consumer interest in fresh and healthy products continues to work in avocado's favor. If a little more than this is maintained... strong demand in supermarketsAny adjustment to supply may translate into a certain recovery in prices, especially in the higher quality categories or in fruit certified with sustainable production seals.
Challenges to stabilizing the price of avocados
Producers agree that one of the sector's biggest challenges is reduce dependence on sudden price increases and decreases from one campaign to the next. To achieve this, different approaches are considered, ranging from agronomic planning to commercial and logistical strategy.
One of the keys lies in stagger production and harvesting As far as possible, the supply should not reach the market at the same time. By using varieties with different ripening dates, appropriate pruning, and irrigation management, the supply can be spread over a slightly longer period, avoiding highly concentrated peaks.
Another important aspect is to make progress in avocado transformation projects at the source, such as in the production of oils, purees, sauces, or frozen products. When there is an industry capable of absorbing part of the surplus, the pressure on the fresh fruit market is reduced, and new income streams open up for farmers.
Finally, improving market information is essential. Having access to more up-to-date data on prices, volumes and destinations It helps to make more informed decisions, whether it's to bring forward or delay part of the harvest, look for new buyers, or negotiate more stable sales conditions.
Recent performance in the sector shows the extent to which changes in supply and demand These issues affect both local and international levels. After a season marked by overproduction and low prices at the source, producers hope the situation will improve throughout the year, with a more balanced market that will allow them to cover cultivation costs and maintain the economic viability of their farms, both in the countries of origin and in European regions where avocados have become an increasingly common crop.
